Cancer is set to affect one in every two Britons by 2030, pushing the NHS bill for treatment up 50 per cent to £6 billion, The Birmingham Post can exclusively reveal.

Current statistics show about one in three people can presently expect to develop cancer during their lifetime, but as the ageing population grows every other person will be affected by the disease.

Today, the The Post is joining forces with Cancer Research UK in calling on the Government to draw up a new cancer strategy to run until at least 2020, in a bid to cope with the growing pressures of the disease.

At present none of the UK’s four nations have plans in place beyond 2011, despite cancer being expected to affect half the population within 25 years, and the fact that more people will be living longer as a result of new, and costly drugs. The NHS Cancer Plan for England runs out in 2010, the Cancer In Scotland strategy expires in 2011 and neither Wales nor Northern Ireland have cancer plans.

Last month the King’s Fund called for the national strategy for cancer services to be revised, to take into consideration new treatments, technology and the ageing population.

Since the Cancer Plan was published in 2000, patients have been able to benefit from an almost unrecognisable array of diagnostics, equipment, treatment and support services.

It set deadlines for health trusts to cut waiting times from referral to first treatment and improve access to new treatments and tests, in a bid to end the “postcode lottery” faced by patients.

This strategy also increased the pace of pioneering research – much of which is conducted in the Midlands.

Professor Alex Markham, chief executive of Cancer Research UK, told The Post that despite the successes of the past six years, there are still major challenges ahead.

“Cancer is predominantly a disease of the elderly, and two-thirds (65 per cent) of cancers occur in over 65s, and as more people move into that age group so the incidence rate will rise,” he said.

“We will reach an incidence of one-in-two by 2030, if not sooner, that’s a realistic number – one in two people will be affected by cancer within the next two decades.

“As a result the cost of treating cancers in the UK could go up by 50 per cent.

“The total cost to the NHS of treating cancer is estimated to be £4 billion a year, but this increase could add another £2 billion.

“This is why we need the Cancer Plan, to commit to research efforts, to fund new treatments and to target cancer prevention.

“But this isn’t about us saying ‘give us more money’, it’s about setting priorities for the future.

“The existing plan has set research in the right direction but studies take time to deliver. It’s changed the delivery of cancer treatment dramatically and this will pay off massively over the next decade.”

As part of the joint Cancer 2020 campaign, The Post and Cancer Research UK are appealing to readers to sign an on-line petition, urging the Government to commit to a new plan which will be presented to the Prime Minister.

To sign the petition online, visit www.cancer2020.org

Professor Markham explained that new treatments, like breast-cancer drug Herceptin, could put even more pressure on NHS budgets and could continue the “postcode lottery” which many patients face. “We are going to see more breakthroughs with drugs like Herceptin, which was a new drug nobody could have predicted and now presents the NHS with a potential bill of £100 million year,” he said. “While there may be new breakthroughs like this every year for the foreseeable future, none of them are likely to cost less than £100 million a year, some may cost more.”

While Herceptin and the “Kylie effect” have improved awareness of breast cancer, Prof Markham explained it used to be as bad as lung cancer – the five-year survival rate for lung cancer patients is only six per cent.

He added: “Through research and understanding the disease, developing new treatments and screening programmes, we now have more successful treatment for these patients.

“We’re in a world where more than 80 per cent of cancers are ‘cured’ as a result of such treatments, but without a plan we cannot look to the future with any certainty.”

Source:  icBirmingham